Bias is bearish under 3960
We’ll send out a more detailed review of where we think we might be in the swing and where the big bear breaks may be made (Which could be made today or within the coming days) as well as different risk scenarios. This is a quick update to say the bull case looks weaker and the day trading bias is short unless we get over 3960.
Price currently hovers around support. It’s hard to say we’ve broken supports at this time, but we are certainly threatening them.
Currently the easiest method to look for trades/exits is to look for 76 retracements of the last leg down. This would give us a reversal zone around where we are 3940 - 3950 area. The high of this might already be in.
If we are in a bear trap then the rally out of it could be very brutal. I think the case for this has weakened since yesterday but it’s still important to have stops in place in case we’re still too early on the short. There are few things more painful in a market than being just one swing too early.
If bears can make some big candle closes under 3920 we might be entering into very obvious bear trend conditions. Simple trend following intraday with stops above last high will be optimal strategy in such conditions.