Have spoken a lot more about this while it was setting up in this thread:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ihvpieBh-Final-Attempt-at-BTC-Short/
Here's a few more thoughts:
1 - BTC has always held the retest of the high in successful breakouts. The only instance it never was the start of the 2022 bear move.
2 - If BTC drops to under the low last a pending bull butterfly will form. If this fails, it predicts capitulation to 40K are.
3 - If the butterfly failure move happens, we might have seen waves 1 and 2 of Elliot and be heading into a trend reversal.
All of these things pick up a lot of merit under 60K.
Really critical support levels here for BTC. Could become a real mess if they break.
As a caveat warning, we do still have some potential for a stop hunt butterfly spike. Looks a bit less likely now but should never be ruled out.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/jW5F1jRF-Harmonic-Spike-is-a-Risk-for-Bears-Here/