This feels a lot like the moment the years I’ve spent sharing my thoughts and strategies on how a market breaks have been leading up to.
We are now actually making a break (I’ve previously said things like “On the cusp of” - but now it is there on the chart) or we’re going to see a significant failure of one of my most reliable crash signals.
If you’re a new reader and didn’t see the 2021 forecasts, please read this free post. It will provide context on my background as a trader, history of big forecasts and explain a little about the big crash signal that has recently formed. For everyone else who knows all that stuff, you’ll understand my perspective here.
There is a very strong chance now we have three stages of a crash setting up in:
Initial top/First break.
Trend down enough to lure in bears.
Bull trap high enough to punish them.
A secondary break/Failure of bull trap.
These phases have preluded almost every major bear event in history. To date, we’ve used the crash models proposed to catch somewhere in the area of 70% of the big swings (Both bull and bear). These same models now tell us to prepare for a crash.
I will send out a paid newsletter much more detailed where we look at the potential crash path, trades and also how to protect ourselves if we are wrong.
I should caveat this by saying if 4120 can not break we might actually be at a low. I put the odds of that really thin right now but it’s not impossible. I say this more as a warning against complacency as a bear than anything else.
With that said, with the benefit of hindsight the recent signal we got last week on the 4120 was has always been the best leading indicator for bulls to get out before a crash.
This is my warning.
I do not say it lightly. There’s no record of me calling crash every single day. I do it only under very specific conditions - and these have now filled.