Feels like its now or never for bears at this level.
For our case to be valid we need sellers soon. Almost filled full tolerance zone now.
I think for the bear case to be good we need to see SPX reverse before 4560 and we need to see the currently monthly candle closing with a wick on top (Meaning we have to sell into the end of the month). While there’s still a tiny bit more time/space left for this - we really do need to see we’re not alone in this trade.
We need some bigger players to jump into the game on our side. And if this does not happen, we should be quick to accept we' may be on the wrong side of the game.
Currently at max bear. Over multiple markets. But at this point I’d like to remind you of how I’d expect this move to fail. To this point, while we have filled a classic bear market rally pattern, we’ve also formed what could be a bat pattern. A spike out pattern, detailed months ago in this post: Let's talk about the classic bubble model - by HoleyProfit (substack.com)
The market is still consistent with the bat pattern.
Current:
If we’re in a D leg of a big bat pattern - price will steepen upon the next break. It will defy and notion of “Over bought”. There will be only shallow pullbacks. Large chunks of the moves will be made in rapid advances. The high ATH will be spiked out. And for bears who are stubborn, it will be hell. It’s not worth it.
After a bat, may come a super easy short. But it’s only easy when you ride the rallies first.