FOMC thoughts and plans

Quick one because market is moving. Probably do a follow up later when there’s more time to give some additional thoughts, explanations and adjustments if things in this plan do not play out.

I had a bear bias heading into the news and it’s not like anything “Not bearish” happened there, so we’ll stick with the bear bias (I do not know what the news is at this point - I never do).

Simple bear plan is the 76 retracement with stops over the 86.

Bear plan fails over 86 and this is an exit/wait. Probably would go long into a dip.

If low breaks, I’d short retest with stop above recent high. This is my least favourable outcome. I’d trade smaller into this than I’d trade into the retracement trade.

Short under highlight. Stop cross.

Everything on the short here is “One try”. If I get stopped out, I am just going to wait and make more plans in a while. If we’re in the move I think we’re in, the following short should be easy. Either on the 76 or into the breakout. If it’s not easy, I’ll get out and wait for easier spots later.