Probably some sort of decision to made at 4430.
Possible important level for the near term trend.
Previously we gave a buy signal at the blue area and then switched this to a short signal around the red area.
From the red high we did successfully break the blue low. In the first forecast bull rally we’d have expected to see this blue low hold. While the trading under it is nominal, the failed bounce from it is usually more indicative of a break having been made.
The 76 retracement of this drop offers a good spot to short with stops just above the high.
A break over here would invalidate the bear analysis and also probably flag a bull signal, but I am cautious of a choppy market (Decided to boycott ranges after the dragged out range before the big bull break) and if the short signal fails I’ll probably just wait a while to make any new decisions.
4360 is next big support level giving us a frontrunner’s target of 4370.
Breaking under 4370 would give us a bias towards more down. 4370 would be a spot we’d maybe be interested in the long to 4500 again.
My overall theory is we may be topping here. The top could be made but it’s more common to spike out. The highlights zone is where I think the bears would take over (Or be defeated). But there’s multiple different tricky ways this can happen - shown is an example of a couple false breakouts.
If we’re in a top, the market will usually want to suck in the bears and then kick them out. There’s good value shorting retracement levels but be careful. A good rule for shorts in these situations is as soon as you start to feel clever, protect your profits.
Current plan is short to 4370 with reassessment 4360 if hit.
Short fails over 4437 (Market is probably long but I am probably not doing anything).
If we persist in choppy action, just wait it out. It’s too easy to make money in the clean swings to be wasting it in the mess.