Protect long profits now.
Starting to get more nervy as a bull. Considering shorts, locking in profits on longs.
I think there’s a much better case to be made for the bear now. Will do a full update version of this soon but this is just a quick update for positional changes.
All stops on longs are now 4092 (Or higher) on SPX. I think if that breaks we’ll see at least 30 - 40 points more down.
I also think the case for shorts is much better now. Currently I have quite conservative bets, shorting some call spreads and lightly shorting futures with stops above the highs established last week. Also have some deep OTM puts for lottos (Which I’ll covert to credit spreads by shorting puts if we do not drop from these levels.
I think the Nasdaq short is particularly appealing. May or may not work, but a strong case can be made for a Nasdaq short 14,367 with a stop 14,599.
I am maybe becoming a net bear again. Will do into more detail later. While SPX has heavily lagged Nasdaq, Nasdaq has made a big chunk of the bull move I was scared of when flipping on the bear bias several months ago. I see a lot of potential value in Nasdaq shorts (With good stop placemen) here.
If we get sellers off the current levels, I may be much more inclined o pivot back to swing bear now. Very much contingent on bearish things happening, I’ll be quick to follow bull breaks with tight stops if we’re not carving out a high here.
On a social signals note (As flawed as these can be at times), while I’ve not been in the loop with things going on online, I’d imagine we’ve shook out a lot of bears now - maybe worth coming in to fade the new acceptance a low was made in 2022.
renewed my sub!