The Improving Case for a Made Low

It feels uncomfortable calling a low here and it’s obviously important to plan failures and caveats to plans - but the case for a low being made is improving.

Things look nasty. As I sit here writing this I have price alerts set for a drop that would invalidate all of it and it’s not all that far away. It could ping while I am writing this - but things do look nasty as lows. That’s how it works. There’s a lot of strategical reasons to support this could be a low.

Into the 5100 hit we covered a couple of the big ways support levels were generated.

After the reaction from that we followed up saying 5200 had to hold to give us a simple bullish structure.

Possible low is in. Need to hold above 5200 now. (substack.com)

These local conditions help us to track the important things we have to see / can not see. The thesis there is we’re in the 76 reversal. The 76 held, the 61 held and now we should be generally trending up. Some resistance possible at the following fibs. Retests of broken fibs possible, but generally we’re in an uptrend.

We’re going to look at the macro patterns in detail now, but for trading purposes it’s important to understand the local requirements and failure signals. This way we can know we’re wrong within 50 points or so. Macro patterns take several 100 points to know they’ve failed.

Here’s a confluence of reasons 5100 is important. Might be a low and would be a significant break;