The Case for 3000 in SPX
Backlog of relevant posts:
Nov 2022:
Could be a critical week for the bear case.
Charts are shaping up with what look like easy bear signals and more and more the public are coming to accept the bear is inevitable. There are more jokes about the “Pivot bros” than there are about bears now - And that makes me nervous. When everyone all knows the same thing at the same time it’s either going to be legit and be easy or a massive trap …
The failure of the 2022 bear trend is forecast and the case for there being a macro short setup if we go parabolic to a new high is outlined.
Feb 2024: Explains the case that although paradoxical to expectations, it’s actually much more common for markets to crash after rates stop rising. Which is conditions we’ve had recently.
Historical Highs on Interest Rate Cuts
A year ago we posted “Fight the FED” in which we highlighted how, contrary to the popular perception at the time, rising interest rates historically produce rallies more often than crashes. Since this time rates have rose and markets have rose also. We’re now at 5.5%.
Dec 2024: A follow up post to the above one explaining how the big blow off pattern forecast in 2022 may not be complete.
The Confluence of Huge Bearish Harmonics - by HoleyProfit
Dec 2024: Post explaining how markets have been getting progressively wilder and it’s logical this builds into a fat tail event (and we’re in one now).
The Case for Being on Brink of a Tail Event
Dec 2024: Explaining the case for us being inside the area with the most topping risk.
Fib Norms in Trends: Why 4.23 extensions are critical.
Jan 2025: Case for a dramatic drop coming.
Case for a Dramatic Drop in the Coming Weeks
Feb 2025: The case for a crash event coming.
Could be Major High Made. - by HoleyProfit
March 2025: Explaining the theoretical case for it being reasonable to expect bad markets in the coming decade.
Why Bad Markets in Coming Decade Are Probable.
In a recent free post I made the TA case for a major bear market showing how we have a signal we’ve never seen before.
Feb 2025: Explaining the case for why we could see sustained and steady downtrend action.
Starting to Look Rather Rough. - by HoleyProfit
Feb 2025: Forecast of 8% drop in March / April.
The Case for 8% Drop March/April
It’s possible we’re inside what will become a head of a head and shoulders on the SPX daily, let’s look at the things that support this the implied move.
The above posts provide all the underlying background info that supports my thesis and provides various real time analysis and forecasts so you can see this isn’t all just nicely put together after the fact - these were actionable forecasts, and the models using them continue to flash risk signals.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Market Forecasts and Trade Plans to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.